• Modle CFS - Coupled Forecast System

Tendances saisonnires du CFS (Coupled Forecast System)
pour Fvrier 2021

Fvrier 2021 - Mars 2021 - Avril 2021 - Mai 2021 - Juin 2021 - Juillet 2021


Anomalie de la temprature 2m

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
15/01/2021 00Z+0.1 C-0.9 C+0.3 C+0.8 C+0.6 C-2.6 C-0.5 C
14/01/2021 18Z+0.1 C-0.6 C-0.2 C+1 C+1.1 C-2.4 C-0.8 C
14/01/2021 12Z-0.2 C+0.5 C+0.3 C+0.7 C+0.8 C-1.2 C+0.7 C
14/01/2021 06Z+3.5 C+1.7 C+3 C+2.4 C+3.9 C+1.3 C+4.2 C
14/01/2021 00Z-0.2 C+0 C+0.6 C+0.9 C-0.2 C-1.7 C-1.3 C
13/01/2021 18Z+4.4 C+2.9 C+4 C+2.9 C+4.4 C+3.2 C+5.4 C
13/01/2021 12Z+0.6 C-0.5 C-0.3 C+0.8 C+1.3 C-1.6 C+0.9 C
13/01/2021 06Z-0.3 C+0.1 C+1.1 C+0 C-0.5 C-0.6 C+-0 C
13/01/2021 00Z+2.6 C+1.8 C+2.2 C+1.7 C+3.2 C+1.6 C+3.4 C
12/01/2021 18Z+2.1 C+0.7 C+1.3 C+1.7 C+2.5 C+0 C+2.6 C
12/01/2021 12Z+1.1 C+0.5 C-0.4 C+1.1 C+2.1 C-0.6 C+2.3 C
12/01/2021 06Z+1.8 C+0.3 C+1.1 C+1.5 C+2.4 C-0.4 C+1.6 C
12/01/2021 00Z+2.4 C+1.8 C+2.1 C+1.7 C+3.1 C+1.8 C+3.4 C
11/01/2021 18Z+3.7 C+2.1 C+3.3 C+2.6 C+4 C+2.3 C+4.1 C
11/01/2021 12Z+2 C+1.2 C+2.1 C+1.7 C+2.6 C+0.1 C+2.3 C
11/01/2021 06Z+2.6 C+1.3 C+2.1 C+2 C+3.1 C+1.5 C+3.3 C
11/01/2021 00Z-3.4 C-1.5 C-0.9 C-1.7 C-3.1 C-4.2 C-4.3 C
10/01/2021 18Z+1.4 C+0.4 C+1.1 C+1.1 C+2 C-1 C+0.4 C
10/01/2021 12Z+2.7 C+1.6 C+2.8 C+1.7 C+2.9 C+1.7 C+3.6 C
10/01/2021 06Z+2.8 C+1.2 C+2 C+2.1 C+3.3 C+0.5 C+2.9 C
10/01/2021 00Z+3.1 C+2.3 C+3.6 C+2 C+3.6 C+3 C+4.1 C
09/01/2021 18Z+-0 C-1.1 C+0.5 C+1.4 C+0.7 C-2.9 C-0.7 C
09/01/2021 12Z+2 C+1.1 C+2 C+2.1 C+2.6 C+0.7 C+2 C
09/01/2021 06Z+2.3 C+1.6 C+2.4 C+2 C+3 C+1.3 C+2.8 C
09/01/2021 00Z+0.4 C+0.5 C+0.1 C+0 C+1.2 C-0.8 C+1.7 C
08/01/2021 18Z+3.5 C+2.2 C+2.1 C+2.5 C+4.4 C+1.6 C+4.3 C
08/01/2021 12Z+2.2 C+1.6 C+2 C+1.8 C+2.8 C+0.7 C+3.3 C
08/01/2021 06Z+1.9 C+1.3 C+2.5 C+1.9 C+2.3 C+0.9 C+1.9 C
08/01/2021 00Z+2 C+0.1 C+2.2 C+2.3 C+2.3 C-0.4 C+0.6 C
07/01/2021 18Z+3.8 C+2.5 C+3.6 C+2.6 C+4.1 C+3 C+4.7 C
Moyenne+1.7 C+0.9 C+1.6 C+1.5 C+2.2 C+0.2 C+2 C

Anomalie de la temprature 850hPa

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
15/01/2021 00Z-2.1 C-2.7 C-1.5 C-1 C-1.9 C-2.9 C-2.8 C
14/01/2021 18Z-1.1 C-2 C+0.3 C+1.6 C-1.3 C-2.8 C-3.1 C
14/01/2021 12Z+1 C+0.2 C+1.1 C+0.7 C+0.8 C+0.5 C+0.7 C
14/01/2021 06Z+2.7 C+2 C+2.7 C+1.4 C+2.5 C+2.4 C+3.2 C
14/01/2021 00Z-1.8 C-1.3 C-1.2 C-1.2 C-2.3 C-2.2 C-3.2 C
13/01/2021 18Z+2.7 C+3.5 C+3 C+1.6 C+2.4 C+3.3 C+3.4 C
13/01/2021 12Z-1.4 C-2.1 C-2.3 C-1.3 C-1.5 C-2 C-1.3 C
13/01/2021 06Z-0.2 C-1.2 C+0.1 C-0.6 C-0.1 C-0.6 C-0.3 C
13/01/2021 00Z+2.4 C+1.6 C+1.6 C+1.3 C+2.3 C+2 C+2.3 C
12/01/2021 18Z+0.1 C-0.3 C+0.2 C+0.3 C+0.1 C-0.1 C+0.3 C
12/01/2021 12Z-0.2 C-0.8 C-1.8 C-1 C+0.3 C-0.8 C+0.7 C
12/01/2021 06Z-0.3 C-1 C-0.4 C-0.5 C+0.1 C-0.7 C-0.1 C
12/01/2021 00Z+1.9 C+1.7 C+2.1 C+0.9 C+1.8 C+2.3 C+2.3 C
11/01/2021 18Z+1.9 C+1.3 C+1.9 C+0.8 C+1.8 C+1.7 C+2.4 C
11/01/2021 12Z+0 C+0.5 C+1 C+0.7 C+0 C-0.3 C+-0 C
11/01/2021 06Z+1.1 C+0.5 C+1.2 C+0.2 C+1.1 C+1.3 C+1.6 C
11/01/2021 00Z-1.3 C-3 C-1.9 C-1.7 C-1.2 C-2.5 C-2.1 C
10/01/2021 18Z+0.8 C-1.1 C+0.2 C+0.2 C+1.1 C-0.2 C+0.6 C
10/01/2021 12Z+1.7 C+0.9 C+1.9 C+0.6 C+1.6 C+2.1 C+2.7 C
10/01/2021 06Z+1.1 C+1.5 C+0.7 C+1.1 C+0.9 C+1.1 C+1.1 C
10/01/2021 00Z+3.3 C+2.1 C+3.1 C+1.9 C+3.4 C+3.4 C+3.7 C
09/01/2021 18Z-0.7 C-1.2 C+0 C+0.3 C-0.5 C-1.5 C-1.3 C
09/01/2021 12Z+2.8 C+0.3 C+1.8 C+1.9 C+3.4 C+2.4 C+3.9 C
09/01/2021 06Z+3.7 C+0.9 C+2.5 C+2.7 C+4 C+2.4 C+3.4 C
09/01/2021 00Z+0.3 C+1 C-0.1 C+0.8 C+0.7 C-0.4 C+-0 C
08/01/2021 18Z+2.5 C+2.4 C+2.4 C+1.7 C+2.7 C+2.2 C+2.4 C
08/01/2021 12Z+0 C+1.1 C+0.3 C-0.4 C+0 C+0.8 C+0.6 C
08/01/2021 06Z+1.7 C+0.4 C+2.4 C+1.8 C+1.3 C+1.4 C+0.7 C
08/01/2021 00Z+0.6 C-2.2 C+0.4 C+0.8 C+0.7 C-0.8 C-0.5 C
07/01/2021 18Z+3 C+2.2 C+3.2 C+1.9 C+3.2 C+3 C+3.7 C
Moyenne+0.9 C+0.2 C+0.8 C+0.6 C+0.9 C+0.5 C+0.8 C

Anomalie de quantit de prcipitations

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
15/01/2021 00Z+44.6 %-71.7 %-16.2 %-44.6 %+29.9 %+65.7 %+50.3 %
14/01/2021 18Z-19.8 %-88 %-22.3 %-63.4 %-26.8 %+10.6 %+33.4 %
14/01/2021 12Z-46.3 %-43.8 %-20.2 %-34.9 %-44.9 %-21.8 %-25.8 %
14/01/2021 06Z+46.3 %+8.2 %+43.3 %+42.4 %+63.7 %+47.1 %+64.8 %
14/01/2021 00Z+80.9 %-70.8 %+127.4 %+8.2 %+58.6 %+169.1 %+139.2 %
13/01/2021 18Z+151.8 %-66.2 %+12.9 %+45.4 %+97.7 %+104.3 %+91 %
13/01/2021 12Z+68.8 %-92 %-25.2 %-24.2 %+101.1 %+72.7 %+86.7 %
13/01/2021 06Z-24 %+142.6 %-7.1 %-23.5 %-59.3 %-4.4 %-67.5 %
13/01/2021 00Z-21.8 %+105.2 %-14 %-13.3 %-19.1 %+36.7 %-5.7 %
12/01/2021 18Z+112.5 %-38.1 %+59.9 %+58.5 %+104.2 %+118 %+60.3 %
12/01/2021 12Z-11 %+232.4 %-20.7 %-4.6 %-19.4 %+84.1 %-53.4 %
12/01/2021 06Z+99.9 %-51.6 %+76 %+32.3 %+125.9 %+84.3 %+80.3 %
12/01/2021 00Z+17 %-67.1 %-4.8 %+49 %+47.7 %+5.2 %-8.7 %
11/01/2021 18Z+182.2 %+18.6 %+48.8 %+60.7 %+155.6 %+95.7 %+30 %
11/01/2021 12Z+94.6 %-68.1 %+105.5 %+21.1 %+85.5 %+130.5 %+73.7 %
11/01/2021 06Z+23.7 %-69.7 %-42 %-14.1 %+54.1 %+9 %-21.1 %
11/01/2021 00Z-56.5 %+14.1 %-66 %-55.3 %-85.9 %-30.6 %-66.1 %
10/01/2021 18Z+41.4 %-15.4 %+3.6 %+27.7 %+20.6 %-8.4 %-52.9 %
10/01/2021 12Z+18.9 %-85.8 %-45.9 %-6 %+20.5 %-39.2 %-48 %
10/01/2021 06Z+104.6 %-86.3 %+39.6 %+64.8 %+112.2 %+73.5 %+83.8 %
10/01/2021 00Z+6.9 %+25.7 %-14.6 %+15.9 %-3.9 %+-0 %-47.1 %
09/01/2021 18Z+30.1 %-23.9 %+60.7 %+18.4 %+51.1 %+6.8 %-16.3 %
09/01/2021 12Z-88.4 %-88.2 %-95.9 %-88.7 %-81.1 %-96.2 %-85.1 %
09/01/2021 06Z-38.3 %-88.9 %-57.6 %-59.3 %-15.6 %-33.5 %-52.6 %
09/01/2021 00Z-21.5 %-3.8 %-70.2 %-70.2 %+0.6 %-9.1 %-14.5 %
08/01/2021 18Z-57.1 %-85.1 %-50.6 %-53.4 %-33.1 %-63.3 %-55.5 %
08/01/2021 12Z+92.3 %-45.8 %+81.7 %+79.1 %+111.5 %+123.4 %+51 %
08/01/2021 06Z-6.7 %-45.4 %-4.4 %-10.3 %-7.4 %+3.5 %-33.9 %
08/01/2021 00Z+3 %-41.7 %-22.7 %-8.9 %+2.6 %+7.8 %-29.8 %
07/01/2021 18Z+22.4 %-22.6 %+64.5 %+100.2 %+44.9 %+82.4 %+7.5 %
Moyenne+28.4 %-27.1 %+4.1 %+1.6 %+29.7 %+34.1 %+5.6 %

Anomalie de pression

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
15/01/2021 00Z+4 hPa+4 hPa+6.1 hPa+6.3 hPa+3.3 hPa+4.7 hPa+3.1 hPa
14/01/2021 18Z+6.3 hPa+4.3 hPa+7.3 hPa+7.8 hPa+6 hPa+6.1 hPa+5.1 hPa
14/01/2021 12Z+0.9 hPa+0.5 hPa-0.3 hPa+0.2 hPa+1.2 hPa+0.8 hPa+0.9 hPa
14/01/2021 06Z-4.7 hPa+0.3 hPa-2.5 hPa-7.3 hPa-5.8 hPa-0.9 hPa-3 hPa
14/01/2021 00Z-2.2 hPa-1.1 hPa+0.6 hPa-0.5 hPa-2.7 hPa-1.1 hPa-2.9 hPa
13/01/2021 18Z-6.6 hPa+0.1 hPa-2.9 hPa-9 hPa-8.2 hPa-2.1 hPa-4.7 hPa
13/01/2021 12Z-2.2 hPa-1.2 hPa+0.9 hPa+0.7 hPa-3.5 hPa-1 hPa-4.2 hPa
13/01/2021 06Z+0.1 hPa-1.4 hPa-3.9 hPa-2.3 hPa+2.7 hPa-1.4 hPa+1.1 hPa
13/01/2021 00Z+3.3 hPa+4 hPa+2.4 hPa+1.6 hPa+3.6 hPa+3.7 hPa+3.9 hPa
12/01/2021 18Z-3.4 hPa+0.6 hPa+1 hPa-2.7 hPa-5 hPa-0.2 hPa-3.1 hPa
12/01/2021 12Z+1.4 hPa-0.9 hPa+1.4 hPa+1 hPa+1.7 hPa+0.3 hPa+1.1 hPa
12/01/2021 06Z-2.8 hPa+0.9 hPa+1.2 hPa-1.3 hPa-4.4 hPa+-0 hPa-2.7 hPa
12/01/2021 00Z-0.1 hPa+4.5 hPa+1.1 hPa-2.3 hPa-1.4 hPa+2.9 hPa+1.5 hPa
11/01/2021 18Z-5.5 hPa+1.2 hPa-2 hPa-8 hPa-7 hPa-0.9 hPa-3 hPa
11/01/2021 12Z+0.1 hPa+2.6 hPa+4.1 hPa+1.9 hPa-1.8 hPa+2.6 hPa-0.2 hPa
11/01/2021 06Z+2.1 hPa+6.2 hPa+3.9 hPa+1.1 hPa+0.6 hPa+4.8 hPa+3.2 hPa
11/01/2021 00Z+3.6 hPa+0.1 hPa-2 hPa+1.8 hPa+6.5 hPa+1 hPa+4.4 hPa
10/01/2021 18Z+0.8 hPa+3.6 hPa+0.9 hPa-1.4 hPa+0.6 hPa+3 hPa+3.3 hPa
10/01/2021 12Z+4.9 hPa+8.1 hPa+4.3 hPa+2.8 hPa+4.8 hPa+6.4 hPa+6.3 hPa
10/01/2021 06Z-3.2 hPa-0.4 hPa+0.9 hPa-1.5 hPa-4.6 hPa-0.7 hPa-3.1 hPa
10/01/2021 00Z-5.8 hPa-3.7 hPa-8.6 hPa-9.9 hPa-4.9 hPa-5.3 hPa-3.8 hPa
09/01/2021 18Z-0.7 hPa+1.9 hPa+0.6 hPa-2.3 hPa-1.7 hPa+1.9 hPa+0.5 hPa
09/01/2021 12Z+12 hPa+13.1 hPa+9.1 hPa+9 hPa+12.9 hPa+12.1 hPa+13.5 hPa
09/01/2021 06Z+8.4 hPa+10.4 hPa+8.2 hPa+7.1 hPa+8.1 hPa+9.6 hPa+9.3 hPa
09/01/2021 00Z+6 hPa+3.5 hPa+6 hPa+7.8 hPa+5.6 hPa+5.3 hPa+4.7 hPa
08/01/2021 18Z+7.5 hPa+8.8 hPa+8.7 hPa+6.8 hPa+5.9 hPa+9.1 hPa+7.8 hPa
08/01/2021 12Z-5.9 hPa-0.9 hPa-1.9 hPa-6.5 hPa-8.3 hPa-2.1 hPa-4.8 hPa
08/01/2021 06Z+7 hPa+8.7 hPa+6.8 hPa+5.3 hPa+6.9 hPa+8.1 hPa+8.4 hPa
08/01/2021 00Z+4.5 hPa+6.1 hPa+5.2 hPa+3.7 hPa+4.3 hPa+5.4 hPa+5.6 hPa
07/01/2021 18Z-6.6 hPa-1.5 hPa-6.6 hPa-11.6 hPa-6.7 hPa-4 hPa-4.1 hPa
Moyenne+0.8 hPa+2.7 hPa+1.7 hPa-0.1 hPa+0.3 hPa+2.3 hPa+1.5 hPa

Cartes d'anomalie pour le dernier run de CFS

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Prcisions
Les calculs d'anomalies sont raliss partir des donnes de la priode 1982-2010. Le modle Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2) est donc un modle saisonnier qui est lanc une 4 tous les jours avec les donnes de ranalyse du NCEP. Les runs ont environ 1 jour de retard puisque le temps de calcul du modèle est très long.

 

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